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Cake day: August 16th, 2023

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  • Right now, Haley is polling significantly behind DeSantis, who is already significantly behind Trump. I honestly thought it was more likely that she was angling for a cabinet position or something, but the Koch money injection is interesting. That said, even with money it’s a pretty uphill battle. Given that Trump is far and away the front runner, the number of old school republicans is pretty low. She’s running as if she’s in the general, where a more moderate approach would make a lot of sense (or maybe she’s just trying to dodge creating soundbites for Biden campaign ads which DeSantis seems to have no problem with) but in the Republican primary moderate isn’t going to get very far.

    Even if she manages to clear the first hurdle and overtake DeSantis, she is kinda stuck with her finger’s crossed that Trump is for some reason ineligible to run because he’s such a clear favorite. It would be like going into a room of Swifties and trying to explain why you’re better than Taylor. Spoilers, it doesn’t matter, and the corpse you leave behind is going to look like something out of a horror show.



  • The whole primary is the punchline. It’s either going to be Trump as the nominee, or Biden is going to sweep. R’s are far too racist to nominate Vivek, and even if everyone else in the primary died I have a feeling they’d just write in Tucker or something. That leaves Haley, who is trying to appeal to a Republican base that hasn’t existed for 15-20 years, and DeSantis, who is trying to run as the “is Pepsi okay?” to Trump’s Coke, while he also seems to be simultaneously mumbling “dude Coke is so much better.” The only way this makes any sense for him is if he thinks that Trump is likely to be in jail or barred from running, because that’s the only way he’s getting the nomination.

    I kinda wish that weren’t the case. If it were Biden v DeSantis, Biden sweeps. DeSantis is far too extreme for dems and probably even slightly center/slightly left of center, his whole campaign seems to be designed as if he just has a cuck fetish. And the one thing that I think everyone can all agree on is that as soon as he opens his mouth, you just get the overwhelming urge to shove him in a locker. I also think that almost no one likes Trump’s policies, they just like him and it’s pure cult of personality (and the way they vote seems to confirm that; Trump-like candidates lose, it’s only Trump that has any traction) and DeSantis obviously does not have that. And he’d be running against an incumbent, which is already an uphill battle.




  • I really, really doubt that this is going to be a concern. First, while technically Mastodon can interact with Lemmy, in practice how often does it happen? It’s not zero, but it’s not a lot, either, and I doubt that Threads will change that much because while it’s a neat technical feature, link aggregators and micro-blogging platforms are pretty incompatible culturally.

    And then we have to remember that we’re talking about Threads normies. Do we really think that a bunch of Swifties and Kardasholes and other influencers are going to look at the absolute zoo of Marxist/Anarchist/Linuxist users on Lemmy and be like “this is the type of content I’ve been waiting for, I need to interact more with that community”? This reminds me a lot of neckbeards saying they wouldn’t date Megan Fox because she has weird thumbs.

    And then we have the whole thing with the actual fediverse and the tech behind it. There is still going to be no algorithm artificially inflating the popularity of what are thinly veiled ads. Meta has no mechanism for introducing ads into the Fedi. Lemmy is not suddenly going to be massively interested in the vast majority of content on threads and start upvoting to the moon.

    And the dev team behind the fedi I would wager is going to prevent any sort of real technical takeover, so that means that at any point defederating is possible, and with basically no loss to the fedi.


  • I think it’s even slightly different in that Firefox has some dependence on Google (a scary level, actual, if Google ends that deal Mozilla is pretty much fucked) that the fediverse doesn’t - the people on the fediverse right now are enough to keep Fedi alive and moving, and I’d find it really, really hard to argue that they aren’t there deliberately to avoid being subject to the whims of Meta/Twitter/Reddit, etc. Like, in a lot of ways, it’s a sacrifice to be on these services because the bulk of content still exists in the proprietary silos. Because the actual protocols and main developers are also intrinsically motivated by the this separation, it’s hard to picture how they could even try to extend/extinguish here.

    Like, if Threads fully federates, I’d guess that quite a lot of people block their instance just to keep their hands clean. Those that interact with Threads via Fedi probably fall into the boat that I would. I want some particular content or to follow some people, just not shoveled at me however Meta decides it should be, and not in a way that they can profit from showing me ads. If Meta pulls some bullshit, it’s likely the Fedi would more or less just block them entirely then give up and start a Threads account. And I have a hard time seeing a world where they go to Eugen or basically any of the other driving forces in the Fedi and are like “we need you to change Mastodon so we can [do some typical Facebook bullshit” and Eugen are like “yeah cool with me.”

    I think its more likely that Threads users are eventually going to see fedi users dropping a long comment or some post that is about how it’s nice to have a clean ad-free feed and move clients if not over to the fedi in general. It won’t be enough to really matter for Meta other than to say “see we don’t have a monopoly!” and hey, if the fedi gets a little bigger it’s all good for the rest of us.


  • I just want to pause here and say that this kind of thing, much like basically any bumper sticker ever, is stupid as fuck and I hate it. Whether it’s my dumb fucking cousin saying “Killary” or equally annoying mouth breathers talking about “Drumpf.” Like, I’m as atheist as the day is long, and holy shit does it make the parent comment annoying to read. Your super great “hillary lied, people died” bumper sticker, the “honk if Trump should go to jail,” just all of it. It sucks, I hate it, it’s the laziest form of persuasion (spoilers, it’s persuading no one, it’s just pissing off the people you want to convince.) Oh you didn’t capitalize the ‘g’? Well fuck it’s me the pope, let’s peace out and go get tacos this Jesus thing was dumb anyway.






  • Sort of. If you’re receiving a notification from a remote server on iOS or standard android, they go through Apple or googles servers. That said, some apps rather than sending your device the actual notification (where this vulnerability comes from) will instead send a type of invisible notification that basically tells the app to check for a new message or whatever and then will display a local notification so the actual message stays on device and inside of the hosting services servers (like a self host.)